Average conversion rate across campaigns, by lifecycle stage.
Enroll4.5%
Retain20%
Recover stop-outs6.4%
Results
We report the number we can prove.
Motimatic partners are now opted into randomized holdout testing when they launch new campaigns. When a campaign reaches significance, you see exactly what our work changed.
Holdout-tested
95 marketed5 held out
112%lift vs. control among partners that reached statistical significance
Efficacy at a glance
Three lenses, read together.
How our campaigns convert at each stage, how often we reach your students, and what we can prove changed because of our work.
Retain covers campaign actions such as advisor meetings and next-term registration, not term-over-term retention.
14.5
impressions per student per month
That’s over 170 touchpoints with a student across an academic year, with a message worth acting on.
Ad networks serving Motimatic campaigns, January–September 2026.112%
lift vs. control
Among partners that reached statistically significant outcomes, across enrollment, retention and stop-out campaigns.
Randomized control group tests across Motimatic campaigns.How we measure
We hold out 5% of your audience and compare everything against it.
Take a list of 100 students. Five are picked at random and get no marketing from us. The other 95 get the full program. Then we compare the two groups.
The same five stay out the whole time. Rotate the holdout and you lose the baseline. Keeping the same five out is how we know the difference came from our work.
Why 5% and not more
A bigger holdout would prove things faster. Every student in it is a student we aren’t marketing to, so we keep it small and give up some speed instead.
95 marketed
5 held out
Why significance varies
We don’t guarantee results. Some programs prove a result and some don’t. Three things drive that.
1
Effect size
A large gap between test and control shows up quickly in the data. A small but real effect is just as valid. It takes more data to prove.
2
Scale
Significance depends on sample size, and bigger audiences reach it faster. Some programs run on audiences too small to get there mathematically, even when the program is working.
3
Time
Sample size grows every month. A program that falls short in month three can cross the threshold by month nine.
Why we measure this way
Most impact numbers in this category cannot be validated.
A figure like “X% enrollment growth” sounds compelling. Without a randomized holdout behind it, there’s no way to separate a vendor’s work from everything else happening that term. We chose holdout testing instead.
What you get either way
- 1Annual portfolio impact reportsSee the baseline impact of our work across partners and share it with your teams.
- 2Content and engagement dataWhich creative and messages drive engagement in your program, whether or not impact reaches significance.
- 3Your own impact dataWhen your campaign reaches significance, you get the lift measured against your own control group.
Case studies
Real partners. Measured against their own holdouts.
TransferHigh confidence
Northern Illinois University
+229%applications submitted vs. control
Holdout
1.22%
Marketed
4.02%
The challenge
Drive transfer prospects to submit applications and prove outreach could lift admitted-student volume.
The results
Randomized 5% holdout test
- Application rate 4.02% vs. 1.22% control
- 4,700+ transfer prospects reached across two cycles
Deposit95% confidence
Top-100 Northeast university
+210%deposit rate vs. control
Holdout
3.61%
Marketed
11.21%
The challenge
Move Fall 2026 admits to pay their enrollment deposit and prove outreach was driving it.
The results
Randomized 5% holdout test
- Treatment deposited at 11.21% vs. 3.61% control (+7.59 pts)
- 224 deposits vs. 3 in holdout
- Goal surpassed well ahead of the deposit deadline
Incomplete applicants95% confidence
Atlanta Metropolitan State College
+202%transcript submission vs. control
Holdout
0.51%
Marketed
1.53%
The challenge
Move admits with incomplete applications to submit their transcripts and prove outreach could drive registration.
The results
Randomized 5% holdout test
- Treatment submitted at 1.53% vs. 0.51% control (+1.02 pts)
- 58 transcripts vs. 1 in holdout
- 3,802 incomplete-application admits reached
Stop-out recovery95% confidence
Chamberlain University
+124%registrations vs. control
Holdout
1.75%
Marketed
3.93%
The challenge
Recover students who had stopped out for 3–5 sessions and prove outreach could bring them back to register.
The results
Randomized 5% holdout test
- Treatment registered at 3.93% vs. 1.75% control (+2.18 pts)
- 2,440 stop-out students reached in two months
- ~96 stop-out students registered
The pilot
Start with one list.
Pick one audience and one goal: submitted applications, deposits, fall registration. We run it against a 5% holdout and show you the lift.
1
One listRFIs, admits, continuing students or stop-outs
2
One goalApps, deposits or registrations
3
One holdout5% who receive nothing from us