The class of 2027 shows the largest one-year decline in high school graduates in current federal projections. In the same admissions cycle, new federal loan limits apply to new graduate and parent borrowers, and international enrollment is falling, most sharply among new students.
Key figures
- 103,000 fewer high school graduates, class of 2027 vs. 2026 (NCES projection)
- $100,000 aggregate federal limit for new graduate borrowers (Grad PLUS closed July 1, 2026)
- 111,000 fewer international students in fall 2026 (NAFSA and JB International, upper estimate)
Inside
- Three pressures on the fall 2027 class
- Where students leave the enrollment funnel
- The evidence on motivational interventions
- Measuring effect with randomized holdouts
- Recommendations for the 2026–27 cycle
